Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries

Authors

CHALMOVIANSKÝ Jakub NĚMEC Daniel

Year of publication 2022
Type Article in Periodical
Magazine / Source ECONOMIC MODELLING
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Economics and Administration

Citation
Web https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499932200236X
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105994
Keywords Output gap estimation; Visegrad countries; Output gap uncertainty; Bayesian estimation
Attached files
Description The reliability of output gap estimates is a crucial factor for the successful implementation of economic policy. We evaluate the robustness and stability of output gap estimates while comparing structural and non-structural techniques, using recursive estimates and alternative stability indicators. Our results provide evidence that some structural approaches outperform other available methods. Structural approaches exhibit a higher order of stability. Especially the methods based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition outperform the other structural and non-structural methods. The stability of structural approaches increases as new data becomes available. Moreover, output gap uncertainty diminishes during the positive business cycle phases, and structural approaches offer better overall stability performance and exhibit more stable concordance of these estimates. Our results are robust to alternative prior density settings and reveal similar output gap uncertainty patterns for the Visegrad countries, the euro area, and the United States.
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