Uncertainty of Czech macroeconomic data: advanced analysis: output gap

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Authors

ČAPEK Jan

Year of publication 2007
Type Article in Proceedings
Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics 2007
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Economics and Administration

Citation
Field Economy
Keywords Data uncertainty;output gap;CNB;estimate;confidence bands
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Description The article analyses output gap values that are published by the Czech National Bank. It shows that output gap estimates are uncertain and substantial revisions occur very often. The revisions are often so radical, that it is not sure, whether the economy is above or below its potential. The contribution also constructs confidence bands for "true" values of output gap. Ascertained data uncertainty is very strong and the quality of output gap estimates is low.
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