Is Professional Sentiment Better When It Comes to Cryptocurrencies?



Year of publication 2019
Type Article in Proceedings
Conference Reviewed proceedings of the International Masaryk Conference for PhD. Students and Young Researchers 2019
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Economics and Administration

Keywords Sentix; Bitcoin; Longitudinal Survey; Sentiment
Description In this paper, I examine how university students forecast future Bitcoin prices in the short-, and medium-term by employing a unique longitudinal survey which was conducted in six waves during the period from September to December 2018. Firstly, I calculate the short-term sentiment indicators out of individual survey answers and compare their dynamics with established survey sentiment indicator - sentix Bitcoin Sentiment, which employs responses of professional investors regarding the Bitcoin price expectations. Secondly, I analyze various factors that affect the panel of respondents’ absolute forecasted change in Bitcoin price as well as the absolute error that results from the forecast in each survey wave. I found that the past dynamics of Bitcoin price, the time spent by the respondent on answering the forecast question or the indication whether she is optimistic or pessimistic about the future interest of investors’ towards Bitcoin, significantly affects the degree to which investors provide erroneous forecasts and are sentimental towards Bitcoin.
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