Fiscal Policy for the 21st Century: Does Barack Obama Effect the Real Economic Policy?
| Authors | |
|---|---|
| Year of publication | 2016 |
| Type | Article in Proceedings |
| Conference | Proceedings of the 34th International Conference: Mathematical Methods in Economics |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| Web | http://mme2016.tul.cz/conferenceproceedings/mme2016_conference_proceedings.pdf |
| Field | Economy |
| Keywords | Twitter; Barack Obama; social media; text mining; economic growth |
| Description | In this paper we investigate whether behavior of politicians on social network can effect the real economic policy, namely the economic growth. We investigate Twitter account of the US president Barack Obama (@barackobama) from March 2012 to January 2016 using techniques of text mining. Time series of ratio of positive to all tweets, and ratio of negative to all tweets is constructed and afterwards these are compared with the growth rate of output represented by the growth rate of industrial production index. We found out via Granger causality analysis, that both, ratio of negative to all tweets and ratio of positive to all tweets, has predictive information about the growth rate of output. Lastly, we estimated several linear models that showed the effect of both variables on economic growth. |
| Related projects: |