Charakteristiky regionálních trhů práce jako předstihové indikátory hospodářského cyklu

Title in English Regional labour market characteristics as leading indicators of the business cycle


Year of publication 2021
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Economics and Administration

Description This paper aims to verify the prediction abilities of the regional characteristics of labour markets to predict economic growth and the business cycle phases. Predictions of basic models of time series econometrics (ARMA models) are compared with predictions of these models enriched with both the aggregate labour market characteristics and the regional labour market characteristics. Estimating a comprehensive set of prediction model specifications contributes to the robustness of the achieved results. The paper proves that the models that predominantly use the regional characteristics of the labour market demonstrate an improvement in prediction abilities compared to the basic models or models using aggregate characteristics of the labour market. Nevertheless, this improvement is on the edge of statistical significance.
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